Graphical Abstract

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Otsubo, A.and A. Adachi, 2024: Short-term predictability of extreme rainfall using dual-polarization radar measurements. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 102.
https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2024-007
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Graphical Abstract

Plain Language Summary: The increasing use of dual-polarization radar in recent decades has allowed progressive elucidation of the characteristics of Z_DR columns, regarded as a predictive tool for extreme rainfall because a tall column appears when large raindrops are lofted well above the environmental 0 °C level by strong updrafts. Using an automated algorithm, we investigated the relationship between peak Z_DR column height and maximum rainfall rate near ground level, which has hitherto not been quantitatively evaluated, with a technique to reduce the effect of interference from hail when making radar rainfall estimation.

Highlights:

• Peak column height is positively correlated with maximum rainfall rate near ground level.
• Rainfall intensity on the ground is likely to exceed 50 mm h⁻¹ when radar identifies a Z_DR column.
• Extreme rainfall with an intensity of 180 mm h ⁻¹ or more is likely associated with a column over 3 km tall from the 0 °C level.