Hirahara S., Y. Kubo, T. Yoshida, T. Komori, J. Chiba, T. Takakura, T. Kanehama, R. Sekiguchi, K. Ochi, H. Sugimoto, Y. Adachi, I. Ishikawa and Y. Fujii, 2023: Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute Coupled Prediction System version 3 (JMA/MRI-CPS3). J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 101, 149-169.
Graphical Abstract Published
Plain Language Summary: An overview of the newly developed operational seasonal forecasting system JMA/MRI-CPS3 is presented. Improvements in forecast initialization methods, model resolution, and physical processes have resulted in superior forecast performance over the previous system on sub-seasonal to seasonal time scales. To enhance its application to shorter forecast lead times, the operational schedule was modified to update forecasts on a daily basis.
- Ocean 4D-Var and sea ice 3D-Var data assimilation methods are newly introduced. The errors in the ocean analysis are now represented in the initial perturbations.
- Updated physical processes and increased resolution of the atmospheric model contribute to the improved climate reproducibility of the MJO and North Atlantic blocking highs.
- The introduction of a 0.25-degree-resolution ocean model provides a realistic representation of tropical instability waves and contributes to improved ENSO pattern.