Graphical Abstract

Chang, C.-C., S.-C. Yang, and C. Keppenne, 2014: Applications of the mean recentering scheme to improve typhoon track prediction: A case study of Typhoon Nanmadol (2011). J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 92, 559-584.
Special Edition on AICS International Workshop on Data Assimilation
https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2014-604

Mean Recentering method (MRC) is proposed to improve the ensemble forecast with a poor performance, which suffers from the non-Gaussian distribution and not being able to capture the evolution of the nature. With the MRC method, this study focuses on improving the track prediction of Typhoon Nanmadol (2011), which had an abrupt change in its movement.
A critical factor for the MRC method to have positive impact is the metric of selecting the best member. Cluster analysis (MRC_DA24c in Fig. 1) is suggested to determine the best member for operational purpose.
With the MRC method, the Gaussianity of the ensemble forecast can be better maintained (figure 2).
For operational purpose, although future information is required to determine the best member, the MRC method can provide an important tradeoff by adjusting the ensemble during the early developing stage of tropical cyclones.