Graphical Abstract

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Miura, H., T. Suematsu, and T. Nasuno, 2015: An ensemble hindcast of the Madden-Julian Oscillation during the CINDY2011/DYNAMO field campaign and influence of seasonal variation of sea surface temperature. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 93A, 115-137.
https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2015-055   Graphical Abstract with highlights

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Highlights:

• The ensemble hindcast initialized during 12–16 October 2011 is performed using a global cloud-system-resolving model with a horizontal mesh size of 14 km.
• Not only the first but also the second MJO event observed during the CINDY2011/DYNAMO period emerges in the ensemble mean, although the signal of the second MJO is unsatisfactory in each member.
• Data analyses indicate that an MJO favorable environment, in which SST of the southeastern Maritime Continent is higher enough than that of the Indian Ocean, is established in late November to early December.
• We provide a perspective that a certain type of the MJO can be regarded as a transition process, responding to the eastward shift of the region of large-scale positive buoyancy production following the warmer SST.