Graphical Abstract

Watanabe, S., M. Fujita, S. Kawazoe, S. Sugimoto, Y. Okada, R. Mizuta, and M. Ishii, 2019: Frequency change of clear-air turbulence over the North Pacific under 2 K global warming – Ensemble projections using a 60-km atmospheric general circulation model. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 97, 757-771. Abstract with highlights

Plain Language Summary: Global warming may influence geographical distributions of clear-air turbulence (CAT) hazardous for aircrafts. This study addresses frequency change of CAT over the North Pacific under 2 K global warming based on the database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF; ). The CAT broadly decreases in the midlatitude central to western North Pacific along with the south side of its present-day high-frequency band extending from Japan to the eastern North Pacific. Meanwhile, large relative increases are found outside the band, implying an increased risk of CAT encounters. These changes depend on season, CAT indices, and uncertainties in future warming patterns of sea surface temperature projected by climate models.