Graphical Abstract

Mukougawa, H., S. Noguchi, Y. Kuroda and R. Mizuta, 2022: On the Existence of the Predictability Barrier in the Wintertime Stratospheric Polar Vortex: Intercomparison of Two Stratospheric Sudden Warmings in 2009 and 2010 Winters. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 100, 965-978.
Early Online ReleaseGraphical Abstract


Plain Language Summary: This study examines the predictability of two stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) events occurring in 2009 and 2010 by conducting ensemble forecasts using an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) combined with linear stability analysis of zonally-asymmetric ensemble mean fields using a nondivergent barotropic vorticity equation. The 2009 (2010) event has characteristics of vortex-splitting (vortex-displacement) SSW.